Julius Probst PhD - Is the UK Labor Market Edging Closer Towards Recession?

In this podcast, Glenn Martin and Matthias Schmeisser welcome back Julius Probst, PhD, European Labor Economist from Appcast, to discuss the current state of the UK labor market.

Focusing on economic growth, unemployment rates, and the impact of fiscal policies, they compare the UK and German markets, highlighting the challenges posed by high housing prices and marginal tax rates.

The discussion also touches on the implications for talent acquisition and the future of work in a changing economic landscape. Key takeaways include:

→ The UK economy has shown a growth of 0.7% in Q1 2025, the highest in the G7.

→ Unemployment has risen slightly to 4.5%, raising concerns about labor market stability. → The housing market in the UK is one of the worst among advanced economies, with prices significantly outpacing incomes.

→ House prices are approximately nine times the average income, making home ownership increasingly unattainable.

→ Marginal tax rates in the UK can reach as high as 62%, discouraging additional work and overtime.

→ High housing costs are exacerbating inequality, limiting access to home ownership for younger generations.

→ Flexibility in talent acquisition strategies is essential for businesses to adapt to the current labor market.

→ The UK labor market is becoming more service-oriented compared to Germany's industry-heavy economy.

→ Investment in public infrastructure is crucial for long-term economic growth in the UK.

→ The conversation emphasises the need for awareness of economic trends among talent leaders.